A retrospective cohort study showed increases in fasting plasma glucose during childhood, even if it is in the normal range, can predict adult pre-diabetes.

    The study results showed that, among individuals with a fasting plasma glucose of less than 100 mg/dL as children, increasing levels were associated with greater risks of pre-diabetes (P<0.001) and Type 2 diabetes (P=0.03) in adulthood. There appeared to be a threshold >85 mg/dL -- above which the risk of adult problems began to increase.

    Gerald Berenson, MD, and his team of Tulane University Health Sciences Centre in New Orleans collected the data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, which began tracking children from that Louisiana town in 1978. All had fasting plasma glucose lower than 100 mg/dL

    The current analysis included those same individuals assessed as adults after a mean follow-up of 21 years -- 1,723 were normoglycemic (99 mg/dL or lower), 79 were pre-diabetic (100 to 125 mg/dL), and 47 had Type 2 diabetes. Using a childhood fasting plasma glucose of 86 mg/dL or higher as a predictor for pre-diabetes yielded a 76.9% sensitivity and 85.2% specificity. For diabetes, sensitivity was 75% and specificity was 76%.

    Even though the study had some limitations like lack of data on post challenge glucose, in vivo insulin action and secretion, and glycosylated haemoglobin in childhood the study results conclude that children with fasting plasma glucose levels above 85 mg/dL might have an increased risk of pre-diabetes and Type 2 diabetes in adulthood.